Rural Mainstreet Economy Falls into Negative Territory

September 2025 Survey Results at-a-Glance:

·         For the seventh time in 2025, the overall regional economic index sank below growth neutral.

·         For the 16th time in the past 17 months, farmland prices sank below growth neutral.

·         Approximately, three of four bank CEOs reported that tariff increases have had a negative impact on farm operations.

·         Farm equipment sales dropped below growth neutral for the 25th straight month.

·         Almost three of four bank CEOs indicated that falling agriculture commodity prices represented the greatest threat to banking operations over the next 12 months.

·         According to the USDA data, the 10-state region produced 36.9% of U.S. 2024 agriculture output.

OMAHA, Nebraska (September 18, 2025) — For the seventh time in 2025, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below growth neutral 50.0, according to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

Overall: The region’s overall reading for September fell to 38.5 from 48.1 in August. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Weak agriculture commodity prices for grain producers continue to dampen economic activity in the 10-state region. Almost three of four bank CEOs and chief loan officers indicated that falling agriculture commodity prices represented the greatest threat to banking operations over the next 12 months,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Approximately, three of four bank CEOs reported that tariff increases have had a negative impact on farm operations.

Farming and ranch land prices: For the 16th time in the past 17 months, farmland prices slumped below growth neutral. The region’s farmland price dropped to 45.8 from 46.2 in August. “Elevated interest rates, higher input costs and below breakeven grain prices put downward pressure on farmland prices,” said Goss.

According to the USDA data, the 10-state region produced 36.9% of U.S. 2024 agriculture output.

Jim Eckert, Executive VP and Trust Officer of Anchor State Bank in Anchor, Ill., said, “Harvest has just begun in our area of Central Illinois. Few soybeans have been combined, but initial corn indications are that corn crop will not be as good as 2024.”

Terry Engelken, Vice President at Washington State Bank in Washington, Iowa, agreed with Eckert, stating that, “The recent dry weather appears to have lowered the yields expectations for both corn and soybeans.”

Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index improved slightly to a very weak 15.2 from August’s 14.6. “This is the 25th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. High input costs, tighter credit conditions, low farm commodity prices and market volatility from tariffs are having negative impacts on the purchases of farm equipment,” said Goss.

Banking: The September loan volume index declined to 70.0 from August’s 82.7. The checking deposit index fell to 54.0 from August’s 63.5. The index for certificates of deposits (CDs) and other savings instruments rose to 60.0 from 59.6 in August. Federal Reserve interest rate policies have boosted CD purchases above growth neutral for 34 straight months.

Hiring: The new hiring index for September slumped to 48.0 from August’s 56.0. Job gains for non-farm employers have been very soft for the last several months. Approximately, 92.2% of bankers indicated that the economy is in an economic slowdown.

Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The September confidence index increased to a very weak 32.7 from 27.8 in August. “Weak grain prices and negative farm cash flows, combined with tariff retaliation concerns, pushed banker confidence lower,” said Goss.

Home and retail sales: The home sales index decreased slightly to 48.0 from 48.1 in August. Regional retail sales for September were fragile in September with a reading of 34.8, down from 46.2 in August.

The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally- and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The Rural Mainstreet Index is a unique index that covers 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300. The index provides the most current real-time analysis of the rural economy. Goss and the late Bill McQuillan, former Chairman of the Independent Community Banks of America, created the monthly economic survey and launched it in January 2006.

Below are the state reports:

Colorado: The state’s Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) for September increased slightly to 39.5 from 39.4 in August. The farmland and ranchland price index for September rose to 45.9 from August’s 39.1. The state’s new hiring index dropped to 48.8 from 49.6 in August. According to USDA 2024 data, Colorado produced $9.6 billion of farm commodities, accounting for 1.9% of the U.S. total. The top two commodities and their U.S. shares were cattle at 4.8% and dairy products at 2.4%.

Illinois: The state’s September Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) dropped to 24.8 from 38.8 in August. The farmland price index for September increased to 45.3 from 38.6 in August. The state’s new hiring index for September fell to 36.8 from 49.6 in August. According to USDA 2024 data, Illinois produced $22.5 billion of farm commodities, accounting for 4.4% of the U.S. total. The top two commodities and their U.S. shares were corn at 15.2% and soybeans at 16.3%. 

Iowa: September’s RMI for the state declined to 30.3 from 35.5 in August. Iowa’s farmland price index for September climbed to 45.5 from 35.4 in August. Iowa’s new hiring index for September sank to 41.2 from 46.6 in August. According to USDA 2024 data, Iowa produced $37.6 billion of farm commodities, accounting for 7.4% of the U.S. total. The top two commodities and their U.S. shares were corn at 17.5% and hogs 33.0%.

Kansas: The Kansas RMI for September increased to 44.6 from 39.9 in August. The state’s farmland price index increased to 45.6 from 39.6 in August. The new hiring index for Kansas slumped to 43.8 from 50.7 in August. According to USDA 2024 data, Kansas produced $23.4 billion of farm commodities, accounting for 4.7% of the U.S. total. The top two commodities and their U.S. shares were cattle at 13.2% and corn at 4.6%

Minnesota: The September RMI for Minnesota plummeted to 36.7 from 51.4 in August. Minnesota’s farmland price index dropped to 45.1 from 50.7 in August. The new hiring index for September slumped to 32.6 from 61.3. According to USDA 2024 data, Minnesota produced $22.2 billion of farm commodities, accounting for 4.3% of the U.S. total. The top two commodities and their U.S. shares were corn at 9.2% and soybeans at 7.5%. 

Missouri: The September RMI for the state sank to 44.8 from 53.5 in August. The farmland price index for September slumped to 46.1 from 52.7 in August. The state’s new hiring gauge for September declined to 53.2 from 63.2 in August. According to USDA 2024 data, Missouri produced $13.6 billion of farm commodities, accounting for 2.7% of the U.S. total. The top two commodities and their U.S. shares were cattle at 2.9% and soybeans at 6.2%. 

Nebraska: The Nebraska Rural Mainstreet Index for September sank to 38.5 from August’s 43.2. The state’s farmland price index for September rose to 45.8 from 42.8 in August. Nebraska’s new hiring index fell to 48.0 from 53.7 in August. According to USDA 2024 data, Nebraska produced $32.0 billion of farm commodities, accounting for 6.3% of the U.S. total. The top two commodities and their U.S. shares were cattle at 15.9% and corn at 12.1%. 

North Dakota: The state’s overall RMI for September rose to 52.2 from August’s 50.4. The state’s farmland price index slumped to 46.4 from 49.7 in August. The state’s new hiring index declined to 59.4 from 60.3 in August. According to USDA 2024 data, North Dakota produced $11.1 billion of farm commodities, accounting for 2.2% of the U.S. total. The top two commodities and their U.S. shares were soybeans at 5.1% and hogs 3.3%. 

South Dakota: The September RMI for South Dakota dropped to 44.4 from 52.6 in August. The state’s farmland price index fell to 46.1 from 51.8 in August. South Dakota’s September new hiring index declined to 52.9 from August’s 62.4. According to USDA 2024 data, South Dakota produced $13.1 billion of farm commodities, accounting for 2.6% of the U.S. total. The top two commodities and their U.S. shares were corn at 3.5% and soybeans at 5.3%.

Wyoming: The September overall RMI for Wyoming plummeted to 36.4 from 56.4 in August. The September farmland and ranchland price index sank to 45.8 from 55.5 in August. Wyoming’s new hiring index slumped to 46.3 from 65.9 in August. According to USDA 2024 data, Wyoming produced $2.0 billion of farm commodities, accounting for 0.4% of the U.S. total. The top two commodities and their U.S. shares were cattle at 1.3% and hay 2.0%.